US Option Recommendation – The Mosaic Company (MOS) Protected Long Synthetic

Posted on February 16th, 2010 admin No Comments

I am looking to place the following option trade on The Mosaic Company (MOS:xnys) which trades on the New York Stock Exchange to take advantage of an increase in the share price. The option strategy has limited risk, and will make money as soon as the share price increases so the position can be closed out at any time for a profit once the share price increases. The trade has limited risk and unlimited return. The greater the share price increases, the higher the profit. Once the stock has moved there could be opportunities to sell short dated options against the position to further increase the return. The bought call position expires in June, so there is plenty of time for the stock to increase. The trade involves buying a long dated call for June which expires in 6 months to take advantage of the share price increasing. To pay for this we are selling a bull put spread out until June to pay for the call option. The whole trade is actually done for an approximate 205 cent credit or $1230. The trade details are below as well as some more information on the reasons for entering this trade.

Trade:

Sell 6 contracts June 2010 $60.00 Puts 700 cents

Buy 6 contracts June 2010 $50.00 Puts 300 cents

Buy 3 contracts June 2010 $65.00 Calls 390 cents

Net credit: 205 cents

Net credit: $1230

Summary:

Maximum Profit: Unlimited

Profit if above $60.00 and below $65.00 = $1,230

Maximum Loss is below $2.50 = $4,770

Breakeven = $57.95

Primary Profit Target $80.00 = $13,230

Return on Risk = 277.36%

Secondary Profit Target $100 = $25,230

Return on Risk = 528.93%

Margin requirement:

This trade is done for a credit of $1230; however a margin is required for the bull put spread. The margin requirement will increase if the stock falls, and reduce if the stock increases. After the market increases the bull put spread if cheap enough will be closed out for a profit and then there would be no margin requirement. Allow approximately the maximum risk in dollars to cover the margin requirement or clients with share portfolios can use the shares as collateral. Initially the margin will not be that high, but it’s important to have it available if needed.

Fundamental Analysis:

The Mosaic Company engages in the production and marketing of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients for the agriculture industry worldwide. The company produces phosphate crop nutrients for use in crop nutrients and feed phosphate for animal feed ingredients. It also produces and sells potash for use as fertilizers and animal feed ingredients, as well as in industrial applications. Potash is also used for de-icing and as a water softener regenerant. In addition, The Mosaic Company produces and/or markets phosphate-, potash-, and nitrogen-based crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, as well as operates sales offices, crop nutrient blending and bagging facilities, port terminals, and warehouses. It sells its products primarily to wholesale distributors, retail chains, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Plymouth , Minnesota . The Mosaic Company is a subsidiary of Cargill, Incorporated.

The Strategy – Protected Long Synthetic:

The Protected Long Synthetic is a strategy designed to have a leveraged exposure to a stock while only committing a small amount of capital. The strategy is designed to have a bullish view on a stock and to determine the maximum risk when entering and having unlimited potential return. This strategy is implemented when a stock looks set for a breakout or a strong share price increase. The bull put spread is entered for a credit and the funds received on this trade are used to buy call options. Buy selling the put options it reduces the negative time decay on the call options. The strategy also allows a profit to be made straight away and the trade can be closed out early with a profit and does not need to be held until expiry.

US Option Recommendations:

Clients who wish to trade the US market can now set up online accounts to take advantage of Full Service Recommendation or to trade yourself on the US Options Platform. If you are interested in opening an account to trade US options please contact me for more information.

For more information on this strategy or to implement a Protected Long Synthetic Portfolio on a number of stocks please contact me to discuss in more detail. If you would like to place this trade please email me your account number and quantity of contracts to trade otherwise I can be contacted by email or on 1300 736 622 for more information.

Technical Analysis:

  • Mosaic is in a long-term uptrend which has recently held on the last pull back in the market.
  • The weekly stochastic is indicating a strong buy at these levels.
  • Mosaic has very little resistance and has potential to reach its primary target of $80 and secondary target of $100


To receive ASX Option Recommendations or to learn more about trading options please request the complete Introduction to Options Trading eBook by contacting us on 1300 368 316 or info@totaloptions.com.au

Bull Put Spread Recommendation: Suncorp-Metway (SUN)

Posted on February 15th, 2010 admin No Comments

This trade is a bull put spread trade on SUN. This trade is for the short-term option traders not wanting to purchase the SUN shares but profit from the time decay of the sold puts. This trade is set up to receive maximum profit if SUN is above $8.82 at February expiry. This trade should profit from Suncorp strengthening into the ex-dividend date and this trade will expiry before the ex-dividend date in 2010.

Trade

  • Sell 25 contracts SUN February $8.82 Put Options @ 15 cents
  • Buy 25 contracts SUN February $8.57 Puts Options @ 8.5 cents

Shares per contract = 1020

Net Credit 7.5 cents

Trade Summary

Maximum Profit = $1,912.50

Maximum Loss = $4462.50

Breakeven = $8.745

Return on Risk = 42.86%

Dividend

Suncorp is announcing their First Half Profit Announcement on the 24th February 2010. On this day they will confirm the Dividend amount and when SUN will go ex-dividend. Without knowing with certainty the dividend amount and the date we can use last year’s details as an approximation. Last year SUN went exercise 27th February for 20 cents. If this is relatively accurate this tells us that our position will expire before the ex-dividend date. 20 cents dividend is also a 2.2% yield which makes it highly attractive and should keep SUN strong until after the ex-dividend date.

Chart

Daily Chart:

  • Short-term uptrend
  • Buy on Stochastic

Weekly Chart:

• SUN is in a medium term uptrend and still a buy on the stochastic.


To receive ASX Option Recommendations or to learn more about Bull Put Spreads please request the complete Option Spreads eBook by contacting us on 1300 368 316 or info@totaloptions.com.au